I write this letter onboard a Qantas flight to Seattle, WA, heading to see a lifelong friend and go to the divisional football playoffs. Go Seahawks! Reflecting back on the year, the second half was incredibly rewarding, our trading system identifying the early breakout of the rare generational precious metals boom that may last several years.
Q1 – Another roaring start
January 2025 opened with a surge across multiple asset classes. Crypto markets staged a dramatic recovery from December sell offs, while cocoa and coffee added fuel to the rally. Continued shorts in Pound Sterling-Turkish Lira (GBPTRY) delivered lucrative swaps on the interest rate spread between the two countries. Some late month volatility in orange juice and sugar positions trimmed gains. Still, January closed +16.0%.
February was a reminder that markets rarely move in straight lines. Early optimism faded as cocoa and GBPTRY reversed sharply, eroding January’s strong gains. Despite record swap accumulation, underlying price action worked against us as the Pound continued to rally. Cocoa long trades inflicted a loss, dragging equity down while long positions in Natural Gas offered brief respite with a profitable spike to $4.15 MMBtu. The month closed -7.1% down, underscoring the importance of disciplined risk management.
March was a rollercoaster. Early losses in NatGas and persistent GBPTRY headwinds pushed equity downwards. Then came the 19th March flash event triggered by political turmoil in Turkey on news that President Erdogan’s rival and Mayor of Istanbul was detained on charges of corruption and terrorism saw the Lira drop 2% and GBPTRY soaring to 53.50, slashing equity in hours. The response was risky but swift, doubling down on shorts as the pair naturally reversed. By month-end, GBPTRY had retraced to 48.80 and equity rebounded. Despite closing March down -2.4%, the recovery from a near 30% drawdown was a testament to our strategy’s defensive adaptability.
Cumulative Q1 Return: +5.1%
Q2 – The grind
April through June was a humbling stretch. April opened with optimism with Turkish Lira swaps continued to deliver steading income but underlying price action eroded gains as GBPTRY retested highs. Commodities faltered under the weight of renewed trade tensions between the Trump administration and leading economies. By month-end, equity had slipped marking a -13.4% return.
May offered little reprieve. While platinum hinted at strength, persistent GBPTRY rallies and collapsing soft commodities dragged equity lower. Swaps cushioned the blow, but the underlying positions bled, leaving us down -9.3% for the month.
June teased recovery as commodities staged a comeback and Turkish Lira softened, and equity briefly surged +17% mid-month. But the rally proved fleeting as late-month reversals in coffee and cocoa erased gains, closing June with a modest +1.0%. The losses were cushioned by early signs of silver breaking out around $35.00 per troy ounce (oz t) with small initial positions taken. The quarter ended with a cumulative -20.1% loss, a stark reminder that even well-structured strategies face headwinds when macro shocks and technical reversals converge.
Cumulative Q2 Return: -20.1%
Q3 – Redemption
July marked the turning point. Metals and livestock led the charge, with platinum and cattle emerging as star performers. Equity climbed steadily, +16.5% before a late-month capital injection. July closed with a +24.7% return, largely driven by cattle surging about 8% in July from $2.17 to $2.34 lbs and platinum moving 11.3% in less than 3 weeks. Silver also showed signs of continuing the breakout with a 10% move by late July to $39.50, setting the stage for an extraordinary quarter.
August extended the rally. Cattle surged, and GBPTRY shorts regained momentum. August delivered +10.1%, consolidating the recovery as silver neared the $40 mark at month end.
Then September delivered an extraordinary month. Both platinum and silver exploded higher and we capitalised on the move as platinum rose from $1355 to $1,604 in the last two weeks, up over 18% with silver breaking the $40 mark early and finish the month up nearly 18% to $46.70. As GBPTRY collapsed, and our positions amplified gains in metals seeing equity rocket, ultimately hitting all time highs and +22.3% for the month, while capping Q3 at a staggering +63.2% return, Pineta Capital’s second best quarter ever.
Cumulative Q3 Return: +63.2%
Q4 – Euphoria to exhaustion, back to euphoria
October began with metals continuing their meteoric rise. Gold flirted with the $4,000 mark, silver pierced through $50 without hesitation, and platinum soared to $1,723. all fuelling equity to record levels by mid-October. Then came the reckoning in the form of a brutal pullback on October 17th and the sharpest one-day collapse in gold since 2013 gouged the month’s gain. This was a sobering reminder of the perils of overexposure and importance of locking in gains. Despite clawing back some of the losses, October closed with a modest +1.1% return, a disappointing end to what could have been a record-breaking month, living the adage that greed kills, discipline saves.
November was about getting back to basics. Focus shifted to agricultural commodities, namely wheat, corn, soybeans, while metals staged a cautious comeback. GBPTRY shorts continued to pay swaps, now nearing six figures, cushioning volatility. Equity oscillated wildly early in the month, dipping before recovering +15.1% by month-end. Silver’s breakout in the final week to close at $56.50, aided by a historic Comex outage, triggered multiple profit targets and underscored the value of scaling into trades with smaller lot sizes. November was a month of humility and adaptation: smaller, more frequent trades, tighter stops, and a renewed emphasis on risk management resulted in a +15.1% return.
December delivered the fireworks October promised. Metals stabilized, then surged: silver shattered records, hitting $60 mid-month and later gapping to $84 before settling lower. Gold reclaimed $4,260, copper joined the overall rally climbing 15%, and NatGas added spice to the mix. Equity climbed early in the month and resulted in a +21.5% return for the month and a triumphant finish to the year. The strategy of buying pullbacks in trending markets proved decisive, while swap income from GBPTRY continued to provide ballast. December was not just profitable; it was vindication.
The final quarter encapsulated the essence of trading: October’s volatility tested resolve, November restored confidence, and December rewarded patience. Q4 closed with a +42.6% return, cementing 2025 as a year of resilience, adaptability, and ultimately, triumph.
Cumulative Q4 Return: +42.6%
Concluding remarks
Reflecting back on 2025, the year unfolded as a study in resilience, punctuated by volatility, anchored by discipline, and ultimately defined by asymmetric opportunity. Amid shifting tides in commodities and FX, four markets shaped our trajectory more than any others: silver, cattle, GBPTRY, and copper.
Silver delivered the year’s most explosive upside, finishing the calendar year up 145% to close at $70, rewarding patience on pullbacks and driving several of our strongest monthly gains. Cattle offered steady, reliable trend structure, a calm counterweight during periods of metals turbulence. GBPTRY provided a near-constant stream of swap income that softened drawdowns and bolstered the portfolio’s stamina. Copper, often overshadowed, contributed crucially at key turning points, particularly late in the year.
These markets were not just profitable, they embodied the principles that guided our best decisions: patience, structure, and conviction. As we enter 2026, those same principles remain.
2025 Calendar Year Return: +100.0%
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16 January 2026
Boris Bosanac
PINETA CAPITAL
